![]() But the idea that doing so could start World War III ignores history and telegraphs weakness. Refusing to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine may be justified because it exceeds the risks NATO countries are prepared to tolerate. This war is only in its third week it took the Nazis longer to conquer Poland. Refusing to do so may only prolong Ukraine’s agony.įrequent suggestions that Putin has already lost the war or that he can’t possibly win when Ukrainians are united in their hatred for him or that he’s looking for an offramp - and that we should be thinking up ingenious ways to provide him with one - may turn out to be right. Providing Kyiv with MiG-29 fighter jets and other potentially game-changing weapon systems could help turn the tide. As for the oligarchs, they might have lost their yachts, but they’re not about to pick up their guns.Īrming Ukraine with Javelin and Stinger missiles has wounded and embarrassed the Russian military. Insofar as one of the main effects of sanctions has been to send tens of thousands of middle-class Russians into exile, they actually help Putin by weakening a potent base of political opposition. But the immediate struggle in Ukraine is short term. Sanctions may devastate Russia in the long term. This is to the president’s credit.īut the administration continues to operate under a series of potentially catastrophic illusions. Sanctions have hurt the Russian economy, arms shipments to Ukraine have helped to slow the Russian advance, and Russia’s brutality has unified NATO. The Biden administration now faces the question of whether it wants to bring this cycle to an end. The devastation of Ukraine is the fruit of this appeasement. Contrary to the claim that Putin’s behavior is a result of Western provocation - like refusing to absolutely rule out eventual NATO membership for Ukraine - the West has mainly spent 22 years placating Putin through a long cycle of resets and wrist slaps. 24, that he wouldn’t be able to get away with his invasion? In short, did Putin have any reason to think, before Feb.
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